A Look Into Win Percentage – Choosing A Forex Signal Provider
One would obviously surmise that a trader with a % of winning trades nearing the 100% mark would be a very good bet. Side B then would tell us that a trader with a win % closer to 0% would be a very bad bet. Obviously, winning a great many trades is a good thing, but that would be to oversimplify the matter. The hope of this article is to explain to you why a 95% win rate is way more of a loser than a 65% win rate.
A trader with a 0% – 40% rate, we will classify as low. Let’s take a look at these low traders. The closer they are to 0% in this range undoubtedly the probability is that they are worse than if they were at least higher in the same range. The lower range puts most traders in the category of a losing trader. Occasionally however, you will come across a trader whose modus operandi is to snag large moves with tight stops. This is a trader that has a % that is a very low win rate but can still be considered a successful trader.
Lets look at the next range, say from 40% – 70%. Most winning traders will fit into this category. These traders don’t win by picking all winners and only the rare loser. Indeed, they may have more losers than winners. The secret to their winning ways is that they know how to manage their open trades. They avail themselves of rational stops that will more often than not be executed. This behavior will often result in a losing trade; however, it is a small, basically inconsequential loser. These losses are only a small percentage of their successful trades. These traders usually have the ability to cut their losses and let their winners run free. Not many traders have the discipline to actually exercise this simple concept. They go all or nothing and wind up with mostly nothing.
Our final grouping is in the very high range of a percentage of 70 and above. Most people want to fall on the bandwagon of a trader who is close to 100%. Most people are making a mistake; they should actually align themselves with the trader of a much more modest % win rate. Why is that, you may ask? The reason for the high win percentage of these traders is that they are most of the time taking profits off the table as they appear. A working plan if they also cut their losses in the same way. Any trader, though with a 95 % plus win rate is not following this plan. They do not accept small losses and go forward with their trading day. Oh no, they allow a loser to run rampant for all eternity and may even add to that position in some circumstances. You can see that this in time will wipe out many months of winning trades in one blow and the results are disastrous. For every 500 pip winners obtained one at a time, one 500 pip loser negates them all. And yet, this trader falls into our “winning” range of over 99% winning trades and is in reality a big loser.
Do not think that the reason for this article to be written is to say that no trader outside of a specific range can be a winner. There are certainly many people who can and do win with a winning % outside of the ranges described above. The point of the article is to warn you to look very closely at the trader with a 95% win rate. His losing trades will probably cause him to implode down the line.
To learn more about 3rd party signal providers visit Automated Forex Trading Systems.
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